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Academy
Award Predictions / Contest - March 26, 2003 |
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Well, uh, hmm. I think I'm
going to stop making my Oscar picks so far ahead
of time -- the momentum shift that occurs in the
last month before Hollywood's Prom Night seems to
be killing me (witness Chris Cooper). I take consolation
in the fact that most professional critics were
off in their predictions by quite a bit, and hell,
those guys get paid to do what they do.
So, okay. I was a little
shaken by Cooper taking honors over John C. Reilly.
But I still felt pretty good about where things
were going.
And then The Pianist
happened. Here's a film -- cited as Roman Polanski's
crown jewel, granted -- whose award was supposed
to be, by anybody's reckoning, being nominated in
the first place. It was not supposed to walk away
with actual tangible awards. Adrien Brody, heartfelt
speech and all, was just supposed to take his nomination
and go home, perhaps trekking back into obscurity
(anyone heard from Javier Bardem lately? Me neither.)
But Eminem won. That
was pretty cool. Anyone remember when the Best Song
category was just a way for the AMPAS to give Disney
an Oscar every year? I'm glad those days are over,
for us, and for Disney.
Oh, right, the contest
winner... IS!
STYXMAN!
The Styxer got
4 out of 10 predictions correct, which isn't too
bad, since he did better than me, the Self-Made
Critic, or Roger
Ebert. Unfortunately, Mr. Styx did not give
us any hilarious asides with which to entertain
us all, so I'll just throw in a bit of commentary
on each winner. Yay.
| Best
Picture |
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| Not
nearly as enticing to look at as CZJ in a
flapper. |
Here's one of them there "momentum
shifts" I was talking about. Looking back on
my prediction for Gangs of New York, I realized
my fatal error -- the recognition that while Hollywood
admired the film, they didn't really outright love
it. Shame on them. Chicago got the famous
Weinstein pre-Oscar push, and it seems to have paid
off in other award shows and in this one. I don't
know, Chicago was a pretty good film and
verified that the musical could still survive on
the big screen, but does that mean it should get
top honors? I'm skeptical.
Plus I hate Richard
Gere and any movie that employs him.
| Best
Actor |
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| ? |
I have no educated statements
to make on Adrien Brody, for I admit with great
shame that his was the only performance in this
category I did not see. Maybe he really is just
that good, but one qualm stays with me even
now. Yes, it takes depth and a certain amount of
courage to portray a musician who helps start the
revolt in the Warsaw Ghetto -- but is this material
as unprecedented and edgy as that of Daniel Day-Lewis'?
Day-Lewis's Bill the Butcher is one of the great
modern movie characters, eye-tapping and all, and
his is the performance that actors of future generations
will study when they want to sink their teeth into
a really juicy role. I do not doubt the wisdom of
giving Brody a nomination, but I'm less certain
of handing him the award.
| Best
Actress |
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| Jesus
christ, what is wrong with her hand!? |
Rankle. I wanted Kidman to
win last year, which would have meant Moore
could win this year, and my overall record
could have taken two fewer blemishes. Still, things
aren't so bad when Fantastic Actress A loses out
to Fantastic Actress B -- especially when yearly
nominations for this category highlight what few
good roles there are for women in Hollywood. So
I guess what I'm saying is, this is the kind of
problem I wish I could have with the Oscars more
often.
Moore for 2004!
| Best
Supporting Actor |
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| Ha
ha! Fooled you! |
Goodbye Kodak Theatre. Look,
I really don't care one way or another. A guy I
didn't really want to win was my prediction, and
the last guy I wanted to win actually took
the Oscar. Chris Cooper's a good actor and all,
but this award coasted on the inexplicable Adaptation
bandwagon.
At least Richard Gere wasn't even nominated.
| Best
Supporting Actress |
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| It
doesn't hurt to be really hot. |
I take my victories where
I can get them. Congrats, CZJ.
Chauvinist Pig Alert:
Pregnancy does
wonders for your cleavage, my dear.
| Best
Director |
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| He's
not Scorsese! |
Motherfucker!
Don't get me wrong.
I love Roman Polanski. I think he is an asset to
the filmmaking community and I hope he continues
to make movies of quality for many years to come.
But this is Martin
fucking Scorsese we're talking about here!
A man who got snubbed for Taxi Driver, one
of the best movies of the 1970's! A man who got
snubbed for Raging Bull, one of the best
movies of the 1980's! A man who got snubbed for
Goodfellas, one of the best movies of the
1990's! This man brought us Mean Streets, The
Last Temptation of Christ, The Age of Innocence,
Casino, Bringing Out the Dead -- the list goes
on and on. A man widely hailed as the single greatest
American director living today. No fucking Oscar!
Argh!
| Best
Animated Film |
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| Keep
Polanski away from the little girl! |
Daaaaaaaamn right. Spirited
Away performs something of a miracle act --
a movie directly aimed at kids that still entertains
and amazes adults, without resorting to innuendo
to do so.
Best
Foreign Film
Mm, whatever. No City of
God equals me no likey.
| Best
Adapted Screenplay |
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| I
can't think of anything funny. |
The Pianist strikes
again. I was honestly quite surprised by this --
going by my logic of about a month ago, this was
to be the compensation prize for Chicago,
which in my mind would not take top honors. You
saw how well that worked out. But you know what?
At least it wasn't Charlie Kaufman! Praise be to
Allah.
Can't say much else
till I see the winner this Saturday.
| Best
Original Screenplay |
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| Ah..
well.. sure. If you say so. |
Huh. That takes care of that,
then.
| Best
Documentary |
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| Hope
for unshaven fat guys everywhere. |
Let's have us a little talk
about Michael Moore. That his Bowling for Columbine
deserves the Oscar is beyond dispute; it is recognized
by 2000 contemporary documentarians as the greatest
documentary of all time. Over 100 critics recognize
it as one of the top 10 movies of 2002 -- that's
movies, not just documentaries. I believe
it is important enough to be made part of high school
curriculum, as France has already done. So no more
about the movie itself.
A lot of folks got
a little upset by what Moore said when he had the
chance to take the stage, but they should have known
what was coming. This was the guy who, upon winning
the César, took the podium to voice how he
felt about how things were going in the world. Still,
reception was mixed, to say the least. This seems
curious.
As Jon Stewart so well
put it...
<Clip of Michael
Moore coming down to the Oscar stage amidst a standing
Ovation.>
Stewart: Oh! We love
your vocal activism! Standing O for vocal activism!
<Clip of Michael
Moore voicing his opinions about the presidency
and the war>
Stewart: Wait, why
are you being a vocal activist? We don't like that!
Stop being a vocal activist!
A lot of people like
the idea of Michael Moore, Stewart said,
but they don't so much like the person.
I am quite the Michael
Moore fan. Having said that, his speech made me
uncomfortable, and I'm on the fence about it. But
in the end I think that is the point -- nobody should
be feeling comfortable about themselves, because
nobody is living up to expectations, their own least
of all. In other words, this man was recognized
because he challenged us, and he did so on stage
in the only way that currently matters. He's not
there to win your affection, he's just there to
make you think. And he succeeded.
Anyway, that's enough
soapboxing for this, uh, night. Get outta
here. |
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